From “Shelter in Place” to “Flatten the Curve”

TL;DR: The “shelter in place” strategy hasn’t completely stopped the spread of the virus fast enough and parts of the US are likely going to transition into the “flatten the curve” strategy soon.

I’m writing this to explain my understanding of what’s going on. If this doesn’t match your understanding that’s okay. I’m not trying to convince anybody of anything. It just seems like there’s a bunch of really confused people. This is written for them. I am not an expert in any of the things relevant to this essay. I am not a medical expert. I am not a policy expert. I have friends who are experts in those areas and I’ve been asking them questions. This is my understanding of what they’ve told me. If this helps you understand things better then that’s great! If it conflicts with something an actual expert told you then believe them not me.

So, to get to the heart of what I’m trying to say, the United States is likely going to make a transition soon from the “shelter in place” strategy into a lengthier and more stable “flatten the curve” strategy. This is what people are referring to when they talk about “reopening the economy” or “loosening restrictions”. We’re going to have to make this transition because not enough people in enough places started sheltering in place fast enough. If it continued for another two months the virus would likely be gone but so would our economy. We’re going to need to smoothly transition from “shelter in place” to “flatten the curve”.